According to "Nikkei Business News" reported on July 24, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently released a forecast that if the current rate of greenhouse gas emissions is maintained, the temperature will increase by 1.5 degrees before and after the industrial revolution by 2040. . According to the analysis, in addition to the increase in hot weather and heavy rain, the sea level will rise further, leading to the extinction of animals and plants. In order to reduce the risk of climate warming, changes such as economic activities that reduce greenhouse gas emissions to “substantially reduced to zero” before the middle of the century are indispensable.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change will publish this forecast as a special report at a meeting in South Korea in October. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is an organization of global scientists and the report will form the basis for discussions on preventing climate warming. It has been predicted for the first time since the forecast of the temperature of the end of the century, the release of the 2040 forecast. By publishing to a more recent forecast, it is intended to urge countries around the world to take countermeasures against climate warming.
The report predicts that the temperature in 2017 has risen by one degree compared to the pre-industrial revolution. If the current greenhouse gas emissions remain at the same rate, it will rise by 0.2 degrees every 10 years. It reaches 1.5 degrees by 2040. During the industrial revolution, the temperature rise from 1880 to 2012 was 0.85 degrees, about 0.06 degrees per 10 years, but this speed will be accelerated to three times.
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The report also pointed out that rising temperatures will bring disasters and risks. Specifically, temperatures in some areas will rise by more than 5 degrees, which will have a significant impact on social life, and may also face heavy rains that increase rainfall by more than 10%, causing floods. In addition, sea levels will also rise, causing harm to animals and plants.
The report emphasizes that it is very important to strengthen international cooperation in order to curb rising temperatures. The "Paris Agreement", an international framework for preventing climate warming, sets a target of controlling the temperature increase to within 2 degrees, and within 1.5 degrees is an effort.
To achieve the goal, by 2050, greenhouse gas emissions need to be “substantially reduced to zero”, that is, the greenhouse gas emissions caused by industrial activities and the reduction of absorption of plants and other materials are zero.
At present, due to the economic development of emerging countries, the large-scale emission of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide is still continuing, and the substantial reduction to zero is a high obstacle. In order to promote decarbonization, it is necessary to promote fundamental reforms of economic activities such as industrial systems while popularizing renewable energy and carbon dioxide underground storage (CCS). The EU has a positive attitude towards emission reductions, but Japan’s domestic energy policy is still unclear and it is still impossible to achieve its goals.